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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2013-09-12 10:47:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 120847 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 7 11 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 32 33 36 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 61 56 49 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 3 4 5 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 4 4 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 35KT 35KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression GABRIELLE (AT2/AL072013)
2013-09-12 10:46:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LITTLE CHANGE IN GABRIELLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 12 the center of GABRIELLE was located near 33.5, -67.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Public Advisory Number 16
2013-09-12 10:46:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013 ...LITTLE CHANGE IN GABRIELLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 67.7W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD RE-GAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT NEARS NOVA SCOTIA LATE ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Advisory Number 16
2013-09-12 10:45:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120845 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 67.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 67.7W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 67.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.4N 67.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 36.9N 67.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 41.2N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 46.7N 61.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 67.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Graphics
2013-09-12 05:08:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2013 02:48:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2013 03:04:45 GMT
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