je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-09-13 10:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130851 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IT LACKS BANDING FEATURES. AN ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...AND ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT OR LOWER. BASED ON THESE DATA...GABRIELLE IS ONCE AGAIN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 015/15. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY WHEN IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION OCCURRING EVEN SOONER THAN FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 36.5N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 40.5N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-09-13 10:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130851 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM MEXICAN BUOYS AND OIL RIGS AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED ERRATIC MOTION. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO AND LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS SHOWING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT IS SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF... WHICH FORECAST A SMALL LOOP FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST THUS REMAINS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THE SAME 55-KT PEAK INTENSITY AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. NONE OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 19.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.7N 94.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 20.6N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 23.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 24.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2013-09-13 10:50:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 130850 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 58 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 40 NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression GABRIELLE (AT2/AL072013)
2013-09-13 10:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 13 the center of GABRIELLE was located near 36.5, -67.5 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Public Advisory Number 20
2013-09-13 10:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130850 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 ...GABRIELLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 67.5W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS HEADING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1536] [1537] [1538] [1539] [1540] [1541] [1542] [1543] [1544] [1545] [1546] [1547] [1548] [1549] [1550] [1551] [1552] [1553] [1554] [1555] next »