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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092013)
2013-09-09 01:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAIN BANDS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Sep 8 the center of NINE was located near 13.1, -21.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 1A
2013-09-09 01:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082342 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 800 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013 ...RAIN BANDS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 21.4W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2013-09-08 23:07:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2013 20:40:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Sep 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-09-08 22:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 082042 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES...AND THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM AFRICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN RATHER SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE THAT TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURPRISINGLY... THE LARGEST SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE OCCURS WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONVERGE BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. A MOIST AIR MASS...WARM WATERS...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...MAINLY THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSIFICATION RATE AFTER 24 HOURS. SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE TENDED TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS THIS HURRICANE SEASON...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT A BIT LOWER. THE FORECAST DOES...HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE FORECAST...AND THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW BIG THE WIND FIELD WILL GET ONCE THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 20.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 13.2N 22.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 13.5N 24.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 27.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 29.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 21.0N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 32.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-09-08 22:40:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 082040 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 4 5 2 1 1 3 TROP DEPRESSION 58 32 21 10 4 5 10 TROPICAL STORM 40 61 67 58 38 43 55 HURRICANE 1 3 7 31 57 51 33 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 6 25 40 37 27 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 4 13 10 4 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 4 3 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 55KT 70KT 70KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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