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Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-15 04:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150238 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013 ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS AN INNER CORE REGION OF LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDED BY A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR 30 KT...BUT THE CENTER APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY WELL DEFINED TO FIT THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONLY T1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...BUT GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW WIND SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND A MOIST AIR MASS. THIS ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION... THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF FROM ITS DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE TO THE SOUTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...MODEST STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS. ONCE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...THE OTHER TRACK MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 14.0N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 14.5N 25.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.1N 27.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 16.5N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 17.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 17.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-15 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 14 the center of FIVE was located near 14.0, -23.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIVE Public Advisory Number 1
2013-08-15 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150238 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 23.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO... FOGO...AND BRAVA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
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Tropical Depression FIVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-08-15 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 150238 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 3 3 4 7 12 TROP DEPRESSION 31 20 15 14 16 22 31 TROPICAL STORM 67 72 70 63 61 59 51 HURRICANE 1 5 11 20 19 11 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 10 17 16 10 5 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 2 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
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Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-08-15 04:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150237 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO... FOGO...AND BRAVA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 23.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 23.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 23.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 25.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.1N 27.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 30.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 32.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 23.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
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