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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-22 16:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221450 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS...AND IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...BUT IT HAS A DISTINCT WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM MEETS THE QUALIFICATIONS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED MAINLY ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE DEPRESSION HAS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 48 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE COULD ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND INDEED ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A LOW- TO MODERATE-STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO THE COLDER WATER... STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CYCLONE COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME MODELS MOVING THE WEAKENING CYCLONE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA COAST AND OTHERS TURNING IT SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON DAY 5. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 19.2N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 21.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE-E (EP4/EP092013)
2013-08-22 16:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 the center of NINE-E was located near 17.5, -111.6 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Public Advisory Number 1
2013-08-22 16:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221448 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 111.6W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STAY WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-08-22 16:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221448 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2013 INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.2N 112.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-08-22 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 221448 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 5 6 3 14 30 40 TROP DEPRESSION 61 35 25 19 39 46 44 TROPICAL STORM 36 57 61 62 44 23 16 HURRICANE X 3 9 15 4 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 3 8 13 3 1 X HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 35KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 7(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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