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Tropical Depression ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-08-16 22:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 162030 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 12 14 16 15 18 TROP DEPRESSION 58 43 40 37 35 34 34 TROPICAL STORM 40 48 46 45 45 47 45 HURRICANE 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 4 4 4 3 HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-16 22:30:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of ERIN was located near 17.7, -33.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ERIN Public Advisory Number 8
2013-08-16 22:30:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 162030 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 ...ERIN CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 33.3W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-08-16 22:30:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 162030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 33.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 15SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 33.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 32.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.8N 35.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 39.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.9N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.7N 45.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 28.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 33.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ERIN Graphics
2013-08-16 17:08:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2013 14:33:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2013 15:04:45 GMT
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