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Tropical Depression NINE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-08-22 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 222034 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 5 6 7 21 30 40 TROP DEPRESSION 61 35 25 28 43 45 43 TROPICAL STORM 36 57 61 56 34 24 17 HURRICANE X 3 9 10 2 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 3 8 9 2 1 X HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2013-08-22 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 222033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.0W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.0W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.1N 113.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.7N 114.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE-E (EP4/EP092013)
2013-08-22 22:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE EARLIER TODAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 the center of NINE-E was located near 17.7, -112.0 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2013-08-22 22:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 222033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE EARLIER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 112.0W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STAY WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Graphics
2013-08-22 17:08:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2013 14:51:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2013 15:04:45 GMT
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