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Tropical Depression ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2013-08-18 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 180831 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 16 17 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 46 50 45 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 45 33 36 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 14
2013-08-18 10:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180831 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 38.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 38.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 37.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.0N 39.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.4N 41.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.7N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.0N 46.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 38.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ERIN Graphics
2013-08-18 05:09:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2013 02:41:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2013 03:05:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-08-18 04:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180241 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF ERIN HAS RECENTLY DEGRADED WITH THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2310 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30-35 KT...AND GIVEN THE DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...30 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INTITAL INTENSITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW ERIN DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY 72 HOURS. ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER OF ERIN HAS MOVED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 290/10. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED THE LEFTWARD TURN AND SHOULD STEER ERIN ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTABLY SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...WITH A FEW MODELS EVEN SHOWING A DUE WESTWARD TRACK. ASSUMING A WEAKER ERIN WOULD BECOME MORE STEERED BY A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 21.3N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 21.9N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 23.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-18 04:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AGAIN... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 17 the center of ERIN was located near 20.7, -37.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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