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Tropical Depression ERIN Public Advisory Number 13
2013-08-18 04:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180241 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 ...ERIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 37.7W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY...AND ERIN COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-08-18 04:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 180241 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 16 17 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 46 50 45 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 45 33 36 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-08-18 04:41:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180240 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 37.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 37.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 37.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.3N 39.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.9N 41.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 37.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression ERIN Graphics
2013-08-16 23:08:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2013 20:31:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Aug 2013 21:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-08-16 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 162030 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ERIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SMALL PATCHES OF CONVECTION. SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES OVER 25-26C WATERS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH ERIN WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND KEEPS ERIN STEADY STATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ERIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. ERIN REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION FEELS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN ERIN LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.7N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.8N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 20.4N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 20.9N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 22.7N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 25.0N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 28.0N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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