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Tropical Depression ERIN Graphics
2013-08-18 17:08:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2013 14:37:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2013 15:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-08-18 16:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181433 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ERIN CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 150 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED... PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 30 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN HOSTILE TO REGENERATION...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING PERSISTENTLY STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...OR SOONER. ERIN IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 260/9...WITHIN THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOWS THIS MOTION OR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 20.5N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 20.5N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 20.5N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 20.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 20.5N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-08-18 16:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 181432 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 13 16 17 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 57 50 45 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 29 33 36 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 1 1 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-18 16:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of ERIN was located near 20.5, -39.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ERIN Public Advisory Number 15
2013-08-18 16:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 181432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 39.3W ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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