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Tropical Depression FIVE Graphics

2013-08-15 11:08:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2013 08:49:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Aug 2013 09:04:48 GMT

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Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-08-15 10:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150845 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS FORMED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THERE IS OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A 30-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES. THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD. THE ECMWF...THE UKMET...AND THE GFDL SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHOWN A NORTHWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS TIME...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HR...IT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ECMWF...THE UKMET...THE GFDL...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48 HR OR SO. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LEAVE THE COOLER WATERS AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AND WEAKEN...WITH THESE MODELS SHOWING THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE BY 120 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT YET FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO...AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A STEADY-STATE OR STRENGTHENING SYSTEM. INSTEAD...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 14.4N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.0N 27.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.7N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.4N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 17.2N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 18.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 18.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 18.0N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression FIVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2013-08-15 10:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 150845 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 3 3 4 7 12 TROP DEPRESSION 31 20 15 14 16 22 31 TROPICAL STORM 67 72 70 63 61 59 51 HURRICANE 1 5 11 20 19 11 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 10 17 16 10 5 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 2 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Advisory Number 2

2013-08-15 10:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150845 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 25.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 25.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 24.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 27.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 30.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.4N 32.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.2N 35.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 25.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE (AT5/AL052013)

2013-08-15 10:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT PASSES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 the center of FIVE was located near 14.4, -25.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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