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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-08-16 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161432 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS WEAKENED. THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN...AND ERIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STABLE AIR... AS SEEN IN THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND AIRMASS PRODUCT. ALTHOUGH ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER IN A FEW DAYS... SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE WHILE THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ERIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE FEELS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS...LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. BEYOND THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED WHEN THE WEAK CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.9N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ERIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-08-16 16:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 161431 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 12 14 16 15 18 TROP DEPRESSION 58 43 40 37 35 34 34 TROPICAL STORM 40 48 46 45 45 47 45 HURRICANE 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 4 4 4 3 HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-16 16:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 the center of ERIN was located near 16.9, -32.1 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ERIN Public Advisory Number 7
2013-08-16 16:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161431 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013 ...ERIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 32.1W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 7
2013-08-16 16:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 161430 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 32.1W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 32.1W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 32.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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