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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-08-18 16:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 39.3W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 39.3W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 40.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.5N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 44.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 46.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 39.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression ERIN Graphics
2013-08-18 11:08:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2013 08:35:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2013 09:04:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-08-18 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180834 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE WITH THE CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. ERIN IS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE ITS DEGENERATION TO OCCUR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR EVEN SOONER. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ERIN DISSIPATING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN A FEW DAYS. SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT...SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 20.7N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 21.0N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 21.4N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 21.7N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 22.0N 46.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression ERIN (AT5/AL052013)
2013-08-18 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of ERIN was located near 20.7, -38.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ERIN Public Advisory Number 14
2013-08-18 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180831 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ...ERIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 38.4W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERIN IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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