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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2013-07-06 16:54:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061454 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 FINALLY...THE ROLES HAVE BEEN REVERSED...DALILA GETS SHEARED. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING WITH THE CYCLONE...AND WHAT CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS AT 0728 UTC INDICATED UNFLAGGED WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION NEAR 25 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM NOW HURRICANE ERICK LOCATED ABOUT 500 NMI TO THE EAST OF DALILA...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DALILA BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY. DALILA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED NOW THAT DALILA HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL BE THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DALILA AND ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION TO MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERICK AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF DALILA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 17.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression DALILA Graphics
2013-07-06 11:08:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 08:38:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 09:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 27
2013-07-06 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 STUBBORNLY...DALILA REFUSES TO FADE. THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THUS THE ANTICIPATED DEGENERATION OF DALILA INTO A REMNANT LOW IS DELAYED...TEMPORARILY. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...THIS REFOUND CONVECTION IN DALILA SHOULD NOT BE LONG-LASTING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED. EITHER A CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Depression DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-06 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of DALILA was located near 17.0, -112.9 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression DALILA Public Advisory Number 27
2013-07-06 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...DALILA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 112.9W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT DALILA WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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