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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2013-07-05 04:46:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050246 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DALILA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF CONVECTION. DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR...AND MOST LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...AS DALILA MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 22
2013-07-05 04:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050246 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE-E (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-05 01:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 the center of FIVE-E was located near 14.6, -99.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Public Advisory Number 2A
2013-07-05 01:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042336 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 500 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 99.6W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN PART OF THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Graphics
2013-07-05 01:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2013 23:37:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2013 21:05:23 GMT
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