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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-07-04 16:50:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 041450 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 7 8 7 7 15 24 TROP DEPRESSION 32 40 32 26 21 37 45 TROPICAL STORM 66 51 55 56 60 45 30 HURRICANE 1 2 6 11 12 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 5 10 11 3 1 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 40KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) ACAPULCO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P MALDONADO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-07-04 16:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 041450 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 98.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 98.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 101.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 102.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.6N 104.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.9N 110.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 98.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2013-06-30 07:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2013 05:33:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2013 03:04:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042013)
2013-06-30 07:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD... As of 11:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 the center of FOUR-E was located near 14.3, -103.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2013-06-30 07:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300532 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1100 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 103.0W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATER ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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