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Summary for Tropical Depression DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-05 16:48:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DRIFTING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of DALILA was located near 17.1, -111.7 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression DALILA Public Advisory Number 24
2013-07-05 16:48:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 051448 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DRIFTING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 111.7W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DALILA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2013-07-05 16:48:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051448 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 16 19 29 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 61 56 46 43 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 36 28 34 26 NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 2 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 24
2013-07-05 16:48:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051448 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND INCREASED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.8/41 KT... T2.5/35 KT...AND T1.0/25 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...TAFB...AND SAB... RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH DALILA CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM...THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION SINCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD IS JUST NOW ENDING AND THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE TEMPORARY. HOWEVER...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS EXISTING WEST OF THE CENTER...THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM THE USUAL 40 KT TO 45 KT IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT. REGARDLESS OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DALILA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING CREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICK...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI TO THE EAST. AS ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO DALILA...ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE AND INDUCE EVEN GREATER SHEAR...WHICH WILL ACT TO HASTEN THE DEMISE OF DALILA WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 265/03 KT. AS DALILA UNDERGOES SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH ERICK TO ITS EAST AND ENCOUNTERS A STRENGTHENING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS WEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME AND ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.1N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 24
2013-07-05 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 051448 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.1N 112.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.1N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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