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Tropical Depression DALILA Graphics
2013-07-05 11:08:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 08:37:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 09:04:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 23
2013-07-05 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 DALILA STUBBORNLY PERSISTS IN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH IN A LIMITED AREA...DESPITE THE 12-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND MINIMAL 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A PERFECTLY PLACED ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0424Z INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT PEAK WINDS FOR THE SYSTEM...MATCHING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. DALILA MAY HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS OR SO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK...DRY STABLE AIR...AND COOLER SSTS CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO CEASE FOR GOOD. AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS A REMNANT LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS DALILA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO PROVIDED FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA...WHICH IS WEST AT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BUT AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED...PRIMARILY BY A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS NORTH OF DALILA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 17.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 17.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2013-07-05 10:34:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050833 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 16 19 29 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 61 56 46 43 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 36 28 34 26 NA NA NA HURRICANE X 1 2 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Depression DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-05 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of DALILA was located near 17.2, -111.6 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression DALILA Public Advisory Number 23
2013-07-05 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050833 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...DALILA REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 111.6W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DALILA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR ON SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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