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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-06-30 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.0W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 103.0W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 103.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.1N 103.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.1N 104.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Graphics
2013-06-24 04:35:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jun 2013 02:35:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jun 2013 02:33:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-06-24 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE...WITH A LACK OF WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER FROM TAFB. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY HINDERING THE PACE OF DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODEL SOLUTIONS. INTERESTINGLY...THE DSHIPS FORECAST CALLS FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY IN 2-3 DAYS THAN DOES LGEM. BY 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. CENTER FIXES HAVE SIGNIFICANT SCATTER BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 12.6N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 13.5N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.1N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.2N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.0N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 20.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-06-24 04:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0300 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 1 1 3 17 36 TROP DEPRESSION 11 14 8 3 19 42 47 TROPICAL STORM 88 76 63 46 64 38 17 HURRICANE 1 9 28 50 14 2 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 8 23 35 12 2 X HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 10 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 50KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 36(49) 2(51) X(51) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) 1(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE-E (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-24 04:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 the center of THREE-E was located near 12.6, -104.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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