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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Graphics
2013-07-04 23:11:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2013 20:45:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2013 21:05:23 GMT
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-07-04 22:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042047 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING BANDING SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE PASS...HOWEVER...SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM LACKED ANY INNER CORE FEATURES...WITH A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUGGEST IT WILL SOON BECOME A STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...310/9. A WEAK RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR THE DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXACTLY WHEN THE DEPRESSION MAKES THAT TURN IS UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE FORECAST CHANGE REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND A WARNING COULD BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT IF A NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST CONTINUES. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS COULD GET MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THEN IT WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING COOLER WATER. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.0N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.1N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 19.1N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE-E (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-04 22:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 the center of FIVE-E was located near 14.2, -99.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2013-07-04 22:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042046 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 99.2W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN PART OF THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-07-04 22:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042046 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 4 7 9 12 22 32 TROP DEPRESSION 33 30 25 28 29 41 45 TROPICAL STORM 65 62 59 52 53 35 23 HURRICANE 1 4 9 10 6 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 8 9 6 2 1 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 6(21) X(21) 1(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 10(10) 7(17) 2(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) ACAPULCO 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P MALDONADO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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