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Tropical Depression THREE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-06-23 16:48:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231448 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 1 1 1 11 28 TROP DEPRESSION 32 14 8 3 8 39 49 TROPICAL STORM 66 75 62 46 60 47 23 HURRICANE 1 10 29 50 31 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 9 24 35 26 3 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 10 4 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 60KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 21(41) 1(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 6(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) 1(17) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-06-23 16:40:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 103.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 103.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression BARRY Graphics
2013-06-20 23:08:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2013 20:40:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2013 21:04:43 GMT
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barry
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depression
Tropical Depression BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-06-20 22:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202037 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BARRY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE IN THE AREA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS...AND MOST OF THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE WEAKENING...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.6N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 19.6N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression BARRY (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-20 22:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BARRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 the center of BARRY was located near 19.6, -97.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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barry
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