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Summary for Tropical Depression DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-05 22:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 the center of DALILA was located near 17.1, -112.4 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression DALILA Public Advisory Number 25
2013-07-05 22:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 052034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ...DALILA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 112.4W ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DALILA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 25
2013-07-05 22:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 052033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.4W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.4W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2013-07-05 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 AFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 1654Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 26-KT WIND VECTORS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER WHEN AT LEAST SOME MODEST CONVECTION WAS STILL PRESENT. GIVEN THE WORSENING APPEARANCE IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE FACT THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...THE GENERAL TREND CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM ERICK LOCATED TO THE EAST. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03 KT. NOW THAT THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...DALILA SHOULD BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK. AS ERICK DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE...DALILA COULD TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DALILA WILL NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 17.1N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 16.9N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression DALILA Graphics
2013-07-05 17:08:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 14:50:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jul 2013 15:04:44 GMT
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