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Tropical Depression THREE-E Graphics
2013-06-23 23:07:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jun 2013 20:32:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jun 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-06-23 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 232031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC SUN JUN 23 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 1 1 2 18 36 TROP DEPRESSION 11 14 8 3 14 43 47 TROPICAL STORM 88 76 63 46 63 37 17 HURRICANE 1 9 28 50 21 2 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 9 23 36 18 2 X HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 10 3 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 55KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 13(39) 1(40) X(40) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 4(46) X(46) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-06-23 22:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED...THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORPHING INTO A CURVED BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25-30 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. ALMOST ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS PROBABLY THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD KEEP IT FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER IN 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY ABOUT 120 H. THE ASCAT DATA HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...JUST A BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS A RATHER NARROW SPREAD...AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 H...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE-E (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-23 22:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 the center of THREE-E was located near 12.0, -103.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2013-06-23 22:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232030 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 103.7W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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