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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 9A
2013-06-19 19:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191757 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 95.1W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2013-06-19 17:07:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 14:34:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 15:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-06-19 16:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 191433 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1500 UTC WED JUN 19 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 19 36 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 32 35 43 39 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 66 55 36 22 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 3 2 3 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 2 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) VERACRUZ MX 34 7 20(27) 5(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-06-19 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191433 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS... THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
2013-06-19 16:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK LATER TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 the center of TWO was located near 19.6, -94.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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