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Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 16:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Laura Public Advisory Number 34
2020-08-28 10:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020
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Tropical Depression Laura Graphics
2020-08-28 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 02:36:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 03:24:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression Laura Forecast Discussion Number 33
2020-08-28 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280234 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Laura Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura has continued to spin down after being over land for nearly a day. Surface observations no longer support tropical storm intensity, and therefore the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression. The cyclone should become a post-tropical low within a couple of days, and then transform into an extratropical cyclone while moving off the U.S. east coast. The official forecast shows some restrengthening in 2-4 days due to baroclinic processes. However, by the end of the forecast period, the system should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone to the east of the Canadian Maritimes. Laura continues to move north-northeastward or at about 015/13 kt. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with increasing forward speed is likely while the cyclone becomes embedded in the stronger westerly flow. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus. There is a continued threat of flooding from Laura for the next couple of days. This is the last NHC advisory on Laura. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Key Messages: 1. Additional rainfall will continue to lead to flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, roadways, and minor to moderate river flooding across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. 2. A few tornadoes remain possible this evening across eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and the Missouri Bootheel. The risk for a few tornadoes is expected to redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 35.1N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2020-08-28 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 280234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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