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Tropical Depression Hernan Graphics
2020-08-28 16:50:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 14:50:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 14:50:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-28 16:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281442 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Hernan has become less organized since the last advisory with most of the associated convection dissipating. In addition, surface observations in the coastal areas near the cyclone suggest the possibility that it no longer has a closed circulation, although there are no observations over water to confirm this. Based on decreasing satellite intensity estimates, Hernan is downgraded to a tropical depression. Additional weakening is forecast, and Hernan is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area as it moves over the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough on Saturday. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. Hernan is moving around the northeastern side of the monsoon gyre that contains Tropical Storm Iselle, and a general west-northwestward motion is expected until the system dissipates on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 23.4N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-28 16:42:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281441 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PAZ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Hernan (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-28 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 the center of Hernan was located near 23.4, -109.1 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Hernan Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 109.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Hernan. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hernan was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 109.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Hernan is forecast to move over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon or tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Hernan is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area tonight. The remnants are expected to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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