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Tropical Depression Iselle Graphics
2020-08-30 10:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2020 08:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2020 08:40:06 GMT
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Tropical Depression Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-30 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300836 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Iselle Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Iselle has produced very little deep convection since around 00Z. Earlier partial ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt, which is not surprising given Iselle's lack of organization. Iselle is moving into a drier and more stable environment and over progressively cooler SSTs. While some slight redevelopment of convection is possible during the next few hours, it is unlikely to be very well organized and Iselle is forecast become post-tropical later today. The remnants of Iselle will then continue to gradually spin down for another day or two until it dissipates entirely in a couple of days. The cyclone has moved generally north-northeastward to northward during the pas few hours and is slowing down. The guidance is in good agreement that a northward to north-northwestward motion is likely until Iselle dissipates. No changes of note were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.3N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.3N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/0600Z 24.2N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1800Z 24.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 26.0N 115.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-08-30 10:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300831 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-30 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 the center of Iselle was located near 22.3, -114.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Iselle Public Advisory Number 16
2020-08-30 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Iselle Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 ...ISELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 114.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Iselle was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 114.0 West. Iselle is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general northward or north-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected. Iselle is forecast to become post-tropical later today and will likely dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico, as well as the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are expected to continue for the next couple of days and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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