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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 5
2018-07-07 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 072031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... ...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 75.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 75.3 West. The depression is stationary and little motion is expected during the next 2 or 3 days. This motion will keep the cyclone meandering well off the North Carolina coast. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday. The minimum central pressure estimated from earlier reconnaissance data is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-07-07 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 072031 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 75.3W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 75.3W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 75.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.0N 75.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.9N 74.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.0N 73.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 34.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 40.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 48.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 75.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2018-07-07 16:52:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 14:52:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 15:36:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-07-07 16:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071450 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 Although the convection has increased this morning and it seems a little better organized, surface observations and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds remain at 25 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will check the depression later this morning, so we will have more information about the intensity and structure of the depression later today. The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening at a rate very close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period. The depression is embedded within very weak steering currents, and little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time, the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. Guidance clearly indicates the cyclone's slow motion during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the multi-model consensus. Guidance continues to suggest that the forecast tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will not reach the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 33.1N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 33.4N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 33.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 33.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 39.5N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 47.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-07 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 the center of Three was located near 33.1, -74.8 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1015 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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