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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-07-08 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 75.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 75.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.8N 74.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.6N 74.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.4N 74.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.3N 73.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 41.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 49.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 75.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2018-07-07 22:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 20:34:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 21:34:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-07-07 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 072032 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 9(12) 12(24) 9(33) 10(43) 1(44) X(44) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 34 5 9(14) 12(26) 8(34) 7(41) 1(42) X(42) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 7(12) 10(22) 9(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) 7(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-07-07 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072032 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the depression a few hours ago and found that the circulation is still somewhat elongated with a minimum pressure of 1015 mb. The plane measured flight-level winds which support an initial intensity of 30 kt. These winds were confined to a convective band south of the center. The satellite presentation has not improved very much since the morning advisory. The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours or so. Additional intensification is anticipated when the cyclone moves toward the northeast over the open Atlantic as indicated by most of the models. The cyclone will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics over cold waters by the end of the forecast period. The depression continues to be embedded within very weak steering currents, and little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time, the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. Guidance continues to clearly indicate the cyclone's slow drift during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast continues to be in the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the multi-model consensus. Guidance continues to suggest that the cyclone will not approach the coast and that the forecast tropical-storm-force winds will not reach the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of the system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 32.9N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 33.0N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 33.0N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 32.9N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 33.0N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 34.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 40.0N 63.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 48.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-07 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... ...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 the center of Three was located near 32.9, -75.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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