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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-07 10:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION SLOWING DOWN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 7 the center of Three was located near 33.2, -74.6 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1015 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 3
2018-07-07 10:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070852 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION SLOWING DOWN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 74.6W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB...29.98 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 74.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The depression is expected to meander off the coasts of the Carolinas for the next several days. By Tuesday, a faster northeastward motion is expected to begin. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Sunday. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the cyclone later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb (29.98 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-07-07 10:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 070852 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) X(16) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 7( 9) 10(19) 8(27) 11(38) 3(41) X(41) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) 7(21) 10(31) 1(32) X(32) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 9(26) 1(27) X(27) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-07-07 10:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070852 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 74.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1015 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 74.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 33.6N 74.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.8N 74.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.9N 74.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N 73.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 34.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 37.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 41.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 74.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2018-07-07 04:38:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 02:38:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 02:38:19 GMT
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