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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 4
2018-07-07 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 ...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 74.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB...29.98 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 74.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. The depression is forecast to begin moving toward the northeast by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression could become a tropical storm later tonight or on Sunday. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is currently approaching the depression. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb (29.98 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-07-07 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 071449 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 7( 8) 10(18) 5(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 4(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-07-07 16:49:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071449 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 74.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1015 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 74.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 33.4N 74.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.5N 74.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 39.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 47.0N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2018-07-07 10:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 08:59:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 09:34:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-07-07 10:53:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070853 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes at 0136 UTC and 0216 UTC revealed the the depression has not yet strengthened, and its circulation remains very broad. Although the larger-scale circulation of the cyclone is well-defined, it lacks an inner core, and the center of circulation consists of a wide area of light winds. The initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based primarily on the ASCAT data, and this is also supported by the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. While the cyclone was nearly devoid of deep convection for several hours late last night and early this morning, a broken convective band has since developed to the south of the low-level center. This could indicate that the depression is beginning to become better organized and will begin to slowly strengthen. Warm SSTs will likely allow the depression to gradually strengthen through the next 3 to 4 days, however moderate shear and the lack of an existing inner-core will likely limit the intensification rate. The intensity guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday, and now most of the models show the cyclone nearing or reaching hurricane strength. No change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which is now near the middle of the guidance and very close to HCCA throughout the forecast. Nighttime Proxy-Vis imagery has been very helpful in tracking the depression this morning, which has slowed down and is now estimated to be moving north-northwestward or 345/4 kt. For the first 48 h, the track models remain in fairly good agreement that the cyclone will meander off the coast of the Carolinas, as it becomes trapped in the light steering flow between a cold front passing to the north and the subtropical ridge to the east. Beyond that time, there has been a significant change in the track models, all of which now depict a much faster northeastward motion beginning on Tuesday as the cyclone recurves ahead of a mid-level trough approaching from the northwest. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to show a faster motion at day 4 and 5, it is now much slower than all of the global models in an effort to maintain continuity from our earlier forecasts. If this trend continues, larger changes will need to be made to the track forecast in future advisories. Most of the guidance continues to suggest that the tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will occur primarily to the east of the cyclone's center well away from the U.S. coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings are required for the U.S coast at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 33.2N 74.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 33.6N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 33.8N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 33.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 34.0N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 34.5N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 37.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 41.0N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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