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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-07-07 04:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070237 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 The depression has not become any better organized since the previous advisory. Deep convection has decreased a little near the center, but some banding features are still evident on the south side of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, in general agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The system is currently over the warm Gulf Stream waters, and it is expected to remain over this current during the next several days. These favorable oceanic conditions combined with light to moderate wind shear and a fair amount of moisture near the system should allow for gradual intensification. The SHIPS model is the most aggressive aid and shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 3 days with additional strengthening thereafter. On the other hand, the HMON model shows no strengthening through the period. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lean toward the high end of the guidance due to the conducive environmental conditions for strengthening. The depression is moving north-northwestward at 5 kt steered by the flow on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. A slow north-northwest to north motion is expected during the next 24 hours while the steering pattern holds. However, by Saturday night, the steering currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone will likely drift eastward or southeastward on Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, a shortwave trough is anticipated to approach the system and it should finally sweep the cyclone northeastward well east of the U.S. coast beginning on Tuesday. The latest HWRF model run brings the system inland over the southeastern U.S., but this model is an outlier, and the remainder of the guidance shows a track well offshore of the U.S. coast. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. Most of the guidance suggests that the tropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will occur primarily to the east of the cyclone's center well away from the U.S. coast. Therefore, no watches or warnings are required for the U.S coast at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. The technical issue with the NHC wind speed probability text product at land locations has been resolved. The wind speed probability values provided in the text product, the graphics on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and the publicly disseminated grid files will all correctly reflect the reduced probabilities over land. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 32.6N 74.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 33.2N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 33.7N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 33.7N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 33.6N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 33.6N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 34.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 38.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-07-07 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 070236 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 4(19) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 8( 9) 11(20) 7(27) 9(36) 8(44) 2(46) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 1(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 7(22) 9(31) 7(38) 1(39) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 9(27) 7(34) 1(35) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 6(22) 1(23) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 1(14) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-07 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MEANDERS WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 the center of Three was located near 32.6, -74.1 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1015 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 2
2018-07-07 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070236 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MEANDERS WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 74.1W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB...29.98 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 74.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a slow northward motion is expected overnight and Saturday. A decrease in forward speed is expected by Saturday night, and the depression is forecast to meander well off the southeast U.S. coastline on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1015 mb (29.98 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-07-07 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070236 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 74.1W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1015 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 74.1W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 74.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 33.2N 74.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 33.7N 74.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 74.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.6N 73.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 33.6N 73.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 34.7N 71.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 38.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 74.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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