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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-06-30 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301431 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Emilia's cloud pattern has degenerated significantly this morning and it now consists of a swirl of low clouds with a small patch of convection well removed from the center. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 30 kt, and given that the circulation is already moving over cool waters, additional weakening is forecast. Emilia is expected to become a remnant low later today, although the system could still generate intermittent patches of convection. The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The depression or its remnants should continue on the same general track steered by the low-level flow until dissipation in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.3N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 19.0N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 21.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-30 16:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 the center of Emilia was located near 17.7, -119.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Emilia Public Advisory Number 12
2018-06-30 16:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301431 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emilia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 ...EMILIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 119.2W ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emilia was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 119.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Emilia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-06-30 16:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 301431 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 1500 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-06-30 16:31:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 301430 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 1500 UTC SAT JUN 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.2W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 119.2W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.3N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.0N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 119.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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