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Tropical Depression Daniel Graphics
2018-06-25 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Jun 2018 20:33:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Jun 2018 20:33:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-06-25 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252032 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 Convection associated with Daniel continues to diminish as the cyclone moves over cooler water, and most satellite intensity estimates have dropped below tropical-storm strength. Thus, Daniel is downgraded to a tropical depression. The system should continue to weaken over sea surface temperatures near 23C, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h and to dissipate completely between 48-72 h. The initial motion is now 305/7. Daniel should turn more westward during the next 24 h as low-level easterly flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge becomes the main steering mechanism, and this motion should continue through dissipation. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and it is a little north of the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.4N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.8N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 20.1N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Daniel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-06-25 22:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 252031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 2100 UTC MON JUN 25 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 5 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Daniel (EP5/EP052018)
2018-06-25 22:31:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DANIEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 the center of Daniel was located near 19.4, -118.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Daniel Public Advisory Number 8
2018-06-25 22:31:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Daniel Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 ...DANIEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 118.1W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Daniel was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 118.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a westward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Daniel is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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