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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-06-28 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 280233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0300 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.6W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.6W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.3N 111.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.2N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 115.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.3N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 18.8N 123.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
2018-06-27 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Jun 2018 20:35:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Jun 2018 20:35:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-06-27 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 272034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area south of Manzanillo has become better defined during the day, with ample banding features to the north and west of the center. Thus, this system is declared a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is based on an overnight scatterometer pass and a satellite estimate of 30 kt from TAFB. The center has not been particularly easy to track since it hasn't had a lot of continuity. Generally the overall system has been moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt, so that will be the initial motion. A mid-level ridge over Mexico extending westward into the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the depression generally west-northwestward for the next several days, with some gradual decrease in forward speed in a few days due to the ridge weakening. The biggest uncertainty in the model guidance appears to be in the shorter term, with several models indicating a northwestward motion could begin soon. That motion doesn't make sense with the west-to-east orientation of the ridge, so the official forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the model consensus. Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to wane over the next few days, which should promote strengthening since the depression is over warm waters. However, this intensification could be tempered by marginal SSTs in 2 or 3 days, and an intrusion of drier mid-level air as suggested by the GFS/ECMWF models. Thus only a moderate amount of strengthening is forecast, and the official forecast is between the SHIPS model and the NOAA corrected consensus HCCA model. In about 4 days, the depression will likely be over rather marginal SSTs with nearby dry air. These conditions will probably kill off any remaining deep convection, causing the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 13.3N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.1N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.1N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 16.0N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 16.6N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 18.5N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-06-27 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 27 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 272034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC WED JUN 27 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) 1(15) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 1(19) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-27 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS, EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 the center of Six-E was located near 13.3, -108.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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