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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-07-01 10:45:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010845 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Emilia continues to produce a disorganized cluster of convection to the southwest of the center, and so it remains a tropical cyclone for another advisory cycle. Satellite intensity estimates and surface wind data from the Windsat satellite show that the initial intensity is near 25 kt. The convection is expected to dissipate later today, with Emilia becoming a remnant low when that occurs. Final dissipation of the remnants are expected after 72 h. The initial motion remains 295/10. Emilia and its remnants should continue generally west-northwestward for a couple of days before turning more westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 18.9N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 20.1N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z 20.8N 128.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 21.5N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-07-01 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 1 the center of Emilia was located near 18.9, -122.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Emilia Public Advisory Number 15
2018-07-01 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emilia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 ...EMILIA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 122.1W ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emilia was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 122.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. Emilia's remnant low is forecast to turn toward the west on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Emilia is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Emilia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-07-01 10:44:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0900 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-07-01 10:44:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010844 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0900 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 122.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 122.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.1N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.8N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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