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Summary for Tropical Depression Emilia (EP1/EP062018)
2018-07-01 22:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY MORNING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 1 the center of Emilia was located near 19.7, -124.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Emilia Public Advisory Number 17
2018-07-01 22:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emilia Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 ...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 124.0W ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emilia was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 124.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue through Monday. A turn toward the west is expected Monday night or Tuesday and the cyclone is forecast to continue westward until it dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Emilia is forecast to become a remnant low later today or tomorrow, and dissipate entirely by the middle of the week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-07-01 22:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 012032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.0W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.0W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 123.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.3N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 124.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-07-01 17:13:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011513 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Corrected to add DISSIPATED line at 72H. Somewhat surprisingly, a small area of convection southwest of the center of Emilia has persisted overnight, despite SSTs of around 25C below the cyclone. Although the depression is located within a fairly hostile thermodynamic environment, an upper-level trough to the northwest may be providing enough dynamical support to maintain the convection, at least for now. No recent scatterometer data is available, so the initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will still likely lose all of its convection and become a remnant low later today or early tomorrow since the upper-level dynamical support should decrease over the next 12 hours or so and it will be moving into a progressively drier environment. The various dynamical models unanimously indicate that Emilia will then steadily spin down before dissipating sometime between 48 and 72 h. The initial motion is still 295/10 kt, and as long as Emilia maintains convection, it will likely remain on this heading. Once the system becomes a remnant low, the low-level tradewind flow will cause it to turn westward until dissipation occurs in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 19.3N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 20.6N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0000Z 21.2N 129.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-07-01 17:12:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 011511 CCA TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 1500 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 CORRECTED TO ADD DISSIPATED AT 72H FORECAST TIME THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 123.0W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 123.0W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 122.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.6N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.2N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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