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Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
2018-06-28 04:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Jun 2018 02:35:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Jun 2018 02:35:53 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-06-28 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Convection associated with the depression has become a little better organized since the previous advisory as there has been a general increase in banding over the northwestern portion of the circulation. Despite the increase in organization, Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently located within an area of moderate northeasterly shear, however, the shear is forecast to decrease over the next couple of days. During this time, the depression will be traversing warm water and gradual strengthening is anticipated. By the weekend, the system is expected to begin moving over cooler waters and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should halt further intensification. Cool water and a more stable air mass should result in weakening later in the period and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by day 5. It should be noted that the 18Z GFS forecasts a significantly stronger cyclone than the remainder of the global models and intensity guidance, and appears to be an outlier. Since the strength of the GFS vortex is used as a predictor in the SHIPS guidance, that intensity model also showed more intensification this cycle. For now, the NHC intensity forecast follows the more conservative LGEM, HWRF, and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance, and is not too different than the previous official forecast. If other models trend toward the GFS solution of a stronger storm, the NHC forecast may need to be adjusted in future advisories. Satellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move west-northwestward around 13 kt. The cyclone is located to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. This should keep the cyclone on a general west- northwestward heading during the next several days, however the system is forecast to slow down as the ridge weakens by the weekend. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, except for the aforementioned GFS which takes a deeper cyclone farther northward as the ridge weakens. The NHC track forecast is near the various consensus models through 48 hours, but leans more toward the ECMWF and HWRF after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 13.6N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 14.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 15.2N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 15.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 16.5N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 17.3N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 18.8N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-06-28 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 280234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062018 0300 UTC THU JUN 28 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 X 15(15) 35(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 3(23) X(23) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062018)
2018-06-28 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 the center of Six-E was located near 13.6, -109.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-06-28 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 280233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 109.6W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 109.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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