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Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052018)
2018-06-24 04:35:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 the center of Five-E was located near 14.3, -115.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-06-24 04:35:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 115.7W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 115.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued northward motion at this forward speed is expected through Monday. A steady turn toward the west is forecast to begin after that time, and a westward motion should continue through the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. Weakening is forecast to begin on Monday, and the cyclone will likely become a remnant low by the middle of next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-06-24 04:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240234 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 0300 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.7W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.7W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.6N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 116.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.7N 117.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 121.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Graphics
2018-06-18 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 20:37:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 20:37:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-06-18 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 182035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 The center of the depression, if it exists, remains very difficult to locate either with geostationary or microwave satellite imagery. In fact, the microwave images suggest that there is no longer a center. Unfortunately, the scatterometer swath missed the estimated location of Carlotta so that was of no help. Given these uncertainties, we will write at least one more advisory on this system, but the next one could be the last. The current intensity is held at 25 kt based on continuity and a Dvorak estimate from SAB. It is anticipated that the small system will dissipate by early tomorrow due to interaction with land. The initial motion is a highly uncertain 315/4 kt. There is little in the way of track guidance available, since most of the models are unable to analyze a center for the tropical cyclone. Carlotta or its remnant should continue to move northwestward to north-northwestward, in a weakness of the subtropical ridge, until dissipation. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.1N 103.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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