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Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-06-24 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240831 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 ...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 115.6W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 115.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Monday, followed by a westward motion on Tuesday that will continue through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. A weakening trend should begin on Monday, and the cyclone will likely become a remnant low by the middle of next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-06-24 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240831 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 0900 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.6W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.6W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2018-06-24 04:38:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Jun 2018 02:38:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Jun 2018 03:25:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-06-24 04:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240235 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018 Over the past several hours, the low pressure system located around 115W has developed a well-defined surface circulation. The convective pattern has also improved, with a primary band wrapping around the western semicircle of the cyclone, and a secondary band to the southeast and south. The system has therefore been designated as Tropical Depression Five-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Although the lack of deep convection in the northeast quadrant suggests that some moderate easterly wind shear and dry air are present, warm SSTs below the cyclone will likely support slight slight strengthening for the next 24 to 36 hours. The depression is forecast to cross a sharp SST gradient and become embedded within a far more stable environment on Monday. This should cause it to lose all deep convection and gradually spin down as a remnant low through the middle of next week. The NHC forecast conservatively shows the system as a tropical cyclone through 72 h, but it could become a remnant low sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the intensity consensus IVCN, and the model guidance is in good agreement that only modest strengthening will occur over the next day or two. The depression has been moving generally northward and the initial motion estimate is 355/8 kt. The dynamical models are in good agreement that the shallow cyclone will move continue moving northward for the next 24-36 h, steered by a weak low to mid-level cut-off low to its west. After that time, the weakening system should become increasingly steered by the low-level tradewind flow, causing it to turn toward the around day 4. The official forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and closely follows the track consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.3N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.6N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.4N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 18.7N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 20.3N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 20.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z 20.0N 129.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-06-24 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240235 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 0300 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 14 X(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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