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Tropical Depression Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-06-18 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 182033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 2100 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-18 22:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOTTA NOT LIKELY TO LAST MUCH LONGER... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.1, -103.3 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Public Advisory Number 17
2018-06-18 22:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlotta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 ...CARLOTTA NOT LIKELY TO LAST MUCH LONGER... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 103.3W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 103.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center will be near or over the southwest coast of Mexico late tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Carlotta is expected to become a remnant low tonight and dissipate by Tuesday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima coasts, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. SURF: Southwesterly swells are affecting the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-06-18 22:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 182032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 2100 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 103.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Graphics
2018-06-18 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 14:41:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 15:23:32 GMT
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