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Tropical Depression Selma Graphics
2017-10-28 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 14:50:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 14:50:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Selma Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-10-28 16:43:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281443 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Selma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 The surface circulation center of Selma continues to move inland over San Salvador since making landfall just a couple of hours ago. Conventional imagery, radar data, and surface observations indicate that Selma has weakened during the past few hours and the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is forecast today, and Selma should quickly dissipate over the Sierra Madre Mountains tonight. Selma should turn northeastward soon and continue on this general motion until dissipation tonight, and the global models remain in agreement in this forecast philosophy. The primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall with 2 to 5 inches that could cause flash floods in higher terrain over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. Gusty winds to tropical-storm-force are also possible today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.7N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/0000Z 14.4N 87.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Selma (EP5/EP202017)
2017-10-28 16:43:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SELMA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS THROUGH SUNDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Selma was located near 13.7, -88.5 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Selma Public Advisory Number 6
2017-10-28 16:43:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 281443 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Selma Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...SELMA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS THROUGH SUNDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 88.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of El Salvador has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the Pacific coast of El Salvador. The government of Guatemala has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch along the Pacific coast of Guatemala. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Selma was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 88.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is forecast today, and this motion should continue until dissipation tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through today with dissipation by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and southern Honduras through Sunday. This rainfall could cause isolated flash floods, especially in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm force wind gusts are likely over El Salvador today, but are expected to diminish by tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Selma are affecting portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Selma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-10-28 16:43:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 281443 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SELMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017 1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SELMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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