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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 6
2017-09-13 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 130242 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 ...DEPRESSION WELL AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 118.6W ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 118.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the system could become a tropical storm on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-09-13 04:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 130241 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.3N 121.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N 122.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 125.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 15.6N 126.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-12 22:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 20:38:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 20:38:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-09-12 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 The depression is struggling to maintain deep convection in the face of moderate to strong vertical shear. All of the limited deep convection is displaced about 60 nm west of its center. The TAFB and SAB Dvorak Current Intensity values have not changed, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The dislocation of the deep convection should continue, as it's being forced by strong easterlies due to an upper-level ridge to the north of the depression. Moderate shear should continue for the next couple of days, limiting the opportunity for the depression to intensify. In about two days, the depression may begin interacting with a developing tropical cyclone to its east. (This new system is currently in the Tropical Weather Outlook with a high chance of formation within the next five days.) One plausible scenario is for the depression to be absorbed by the new tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast instead shows gradual weakening as the depression tracks slowly westward, due to an increasingly hostile upper-level environment. The intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and is based upon a blend of the global models, the LGEM statistical scheme, and the COAMPS mesoscale hurricane model. The depression is moving toward the west at 12 kt, primarily being steered by the deep-layer ridge to its north. The depression should continue moving in this general direction at a slower rate of forward speed during the next couple of days. At days three and four, the low-level steering flow should weaken due to the developing tropical cyclone to the depression's east. The official track forecast is based upon the model consensus minus the UKMET (whose tracker latches on to the developing tropical cyclone instead) and is about the same as the previous advisory. This track prediction has higher uncertainty than usual because of the divergence of plausible outcomes for the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.6N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 14.9N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 15.3N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 15.5N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-09-12 22:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 122033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 5 33(38) 5(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 120W 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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