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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-09-13 10:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 130847 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 119.4W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 119.4W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.1N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.4N 123.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 125.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 15.2N 125.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 119.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-13 04:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 02:49:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 02:49:00 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-13 04:42:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130242 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Although deep convection associated with the depression has increased since the previous advisory, it remains displaced to the west of the center due to about 15 kt of easterly wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The current wind shear affecting the depression is expected to persist overnight, so little change in intensity is forecast during that time. Thereafter, the global models show the upper-level wind pattern becoming a little less hostile over the depression. This slightly more favorable atmospheric environment combined with warm SSTs should allow the system to strengthen a little. Earlier model solutions showed the depression interacting with a developing system to its east, but the guidance is showing less interaction now. Based on the model trends and the expected environmental conditions, the NHC intensity forecast no longer calls for the depression to become a remnant low, and instead predicts the system to remain a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. This forecast is in good agreement with the latest models, except at day 5 where it lies on the low side of the guidance. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving just south of due west, 265 degrees, at 11 kt. A continued west motion, but at a much slower pace is expected during the next few days as a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone weakens. By the end of the forecast period, the system could become stationary when it is expected to be embedded in very weak steering currents. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one to come in line with the latest model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 15.2N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 15.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.5N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 15.5N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 15.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 15.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-09-13 04:42:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 130242 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 15 19(34) 1(35) X(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 120W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) 6(35) 2(37) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-13 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION WELL AWAY FROM LAND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.4, -118.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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