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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 4
2017-09-12 16:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 121444 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 116.2W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 116.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and the system should continue moving in this general direction at a slower rate of forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected, and the system may become a tropical storm by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-09-12 16:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 121444 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 116.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 116.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 117.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.9N 119.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.9N 120.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.6N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-12 10:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 08:42:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 08:42:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-09-12 10:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120838 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Shortwave and BD-curve infrared imagery earlier showed a deep convective burst with -70C cold tops near the surface center. That convective mass has since been displaced about 90 miles west of the exposed center and has warmed and diminished. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt and agrees with the Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB. The intensity forecast has become a bit problematic. Earlier SHIPS model runs indicated that the shear would either persist or increase. The latest run, however, reveals the shear decreasing considerably after 48 hours. On the other hand, the GFS, ECMWF, and the LGEM intensity guidance all show the depression gradually weakening and becoming a remnant low in 5 days or less, while the UKMET strengthens the cyclone to a tropical storm around day 3. A third scenario is indicated in the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) technique, which is similar to the GFS, ECMWF and the LGEM, but shows dissipation in less than 48 hours. The NHC forecast reflects some increase in intensity at the 24 hour period, but after that time, it shows weakening to a remnant low in 3 days, out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF global models, the LGEM, and the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) technique. The motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/13 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge extending over the eastern Pacific from the Baja California peninsula is forecast to build slightly southwestward later today influencing the depression to turn west-southwestward. At the 36 hour period, the cyclone should gradually turn back toward the west followed by a northwestward motion around 72 hours in response to an increasing weakness in the ridge along 123W. Around day 4, the depression is forecast to turn back toward the west within the low-level trade wind flow. The official forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast and is in the middle of the ECMWF and HCCA solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 15.8N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.1N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.3N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 15.9N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z 15.9N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-09-12 10:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 120837 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 7( 7) 17(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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