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Tropical Depression Eight-E Public Advisory Number 7
2017-07-20 04:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 122.2W ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 122.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion toward the southwest and then south is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low in a day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-07-20 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 20 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 0300 UTC THU JUL 20 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-07-20 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 20 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 200233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 0300 UTC THU JUL 20 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 122.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 122.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.4N 122.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.7N 123.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.0N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.9N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 122.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Graphics
2017-07-19 22:39:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jul 2017 20:39:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jul 2017 20:39:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-19 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Visible images confirm that the depression is not very well organized with limited banding features and a partially exposed center. ASCAT and satellite classfications suggest that the winds have dropped to 25 kt, and this will be the initial wind speed. Cirrus cloud motions show that the northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the depression. While this shear could abate somewhat tomorrow, it is likely to quickly resume again by Friday due to enhanced upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Greg. Thus little change in intensity is shown in the new NHC intensity forecast, in line with the latest guidance, with some weakening expected on Friday. It would not be surprising if the circulation of the depression opened up into a trough during the next day or two. The initial motion of the depression is west-southwest at 5 kt. The system should move to the southwest or south-southwest around the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg for the next day or two. Model guidance has come into better agreement that Greg will be the dominant cyclone, and the track is shifted southward from the previous one. By 72 hours, all of the global models open up the depression into a trough as the weak system gets pulled northwestward toward Greg. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 13.6N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 12.9N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 12.3N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 12.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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