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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-07-08 10:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080835 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 0900 UTC FRI JUL 08 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 112.0W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 112.0W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.2N 116.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.2N 123.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 17.3N 131.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 112.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2016-07-08 05:12:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 02:35:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Jul 2016 03:06:13 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042016)
2016-07-08 04:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN BUT STILL FORECAST TO DO SO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 the center of FOUR-E was located near 12.3, -111.7 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 6
2016-07-08 04:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 900 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN BUT STILL FORECAST TO DO SO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 111.7W ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 111.7 West. The depression has been drifting westward near 2 mph (4 km/h). A westward track with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before the weekend begins. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-07-07 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016 Recent ASCAT data indicate that the tropical depression has an elongated circulation and is still producing maximum winds around 30 kt. Although deep convection has been increasing in coverage during the day, it is not all that organized and is primarily confined to the eastern and southern semicircles. In addition, dry air appears to be wrapping into the western part of the circulation. Since the cyclone's structure has not yet improved, and the system is about to move over the cold wake of Hurricane Blas, it may take a little more time before significant strengthening can occur. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models, which should have a good handle on the ambient environment, do not show significant deepening of the cyclone for another 48 hours or so. Therefore, the NHC official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward during the first couple of days, with the depression possibly not becoming a tropical storm until tomorrow. More significant strengthening is expected after 48 hours, but even that could be tempered by interaction with Blas's cold wake. The NHC intensity forecast is at the low end of the guidance through 48 hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter. The scatterometer data showed that the low-level center is located a little farther south than previously estimated, and the initial motion is now 275/7 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from northern Mexico is forecast to keep the cyclone on a westward course for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, the ridge is expected to weaken a bit, which will allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. The NHC official track forecast was shifted slightly southward during the first three days to account for the updated initial position. Otherwise, the guidance remains tightly clustered, and there is high confidence in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 12.4N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 12.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 13.0N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 13.1N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 12.9N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 14.0N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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