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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-13 10:51:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130851 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 20 9(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 32(46) 11(57) 1(58) X(58) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 22(48) 3(51) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-13 04:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 02:40:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 02:40:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-13 04:40:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A pair of recent microwave overpasses (AMSR-2 at 2055 UTC and SSMIS at 0020 UTC) revealed that Kiko has not become any better organized since this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited near the center of the tropical cyclone, though this is likely related to diurnal variations in convection, and convection will probably increase again overnight. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, so the intensity has been maintained at 35 kt, as a compromise of the various methods. Despite its short-term lack of organization, Kiko will likely strengthen during the next 2 or 3 days. It is located within an environment consisting of low shear, sufficient moisture, and warm SSTs. All of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening, and the only difference between the models is the rate at which Kiko will intensify. The NHC forecast has not been substantially changed and still calls for Kiko to become a hurricane over the weekend. It is also near the high side of the intensity model envelope, especially between 24 and 72 h. By 72 h, the cyclone should reach cooler waters and begin to encounter drier air. Weakening will likely begin around that time and continue into mid-week. Kiko's center appears to have jumped slightly to the north, or perhaps even re-formed, but a 12-h estimate yields an initial motion of 300/9 kt. The models remain in very good agreement that the tropical storm will move generally westward to west-northwestward throughout the forecast period, steered primarily by a mid-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, mainly due to the farther north initial position of Kiko, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-13 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO POISED TO STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Kiko was located near 16.6, -112.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-13 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130239 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...KIKO POISED TO STRENGTHEN... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 112.7W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 112.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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