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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-13 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130239 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.7W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.7W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-13 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130239 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 25(56) 1(57) X(57) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 31(56) 4(60) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-12 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 20:46:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 20:46:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-12 22:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system. Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt. The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model consensus. The model trend has been to keep the system moving faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has been sped up to become more in line with current consensus solutions. Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-12 22:44:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 122043 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 23(37) 2(39) X(39) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 34(51) 6(57) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 3(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE
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