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Hurricane Isaac Public Advisory Number 12
2018-09-10 16:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 789 WTNT34 KNHC 101435 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...ISAAC SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 43.9W ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Isaac. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 43.9 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through the end of the week. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-09-10 16:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 816 FONT14 KNHC 101435 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 3(25) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 3(35) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) 1(34) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 24(39) 1(40) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 30(52) 2(54) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 4(42) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 32(56) 1(57) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 1(25) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 24(48) X(48) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 17(33) 1(34) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 1(24) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 6(23) 1(24) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-09-10 16:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 308 WTNT24 KNHC 101435 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 43.9W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 43.9W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 43.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 45.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.0N 51.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.1N 54.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.4N 59.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 15.7N 70.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 43.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Isaac Graphics
2018-09-10 11:16:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 09:16:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 09:34:36 GMT
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-09-10 11:14:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 488 WTNT44 KNHC 100914 CCA TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Corrected intensity forecast in table below. Isaac has generally changed little during the past several hours. The small hurricane continues to have a central dense overcast feature with some fragmented bands to the south of the center. The Dvorak classifications remain 4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. Isaac is moving westward at 11 kt. The models remain in poor agreement this cycle as they are split into two camps. The UKMET, HWRF, and a few other models show Isaac recurving near or to the east of the Lesser Antilles toward a developing trough over the central Atlantic. Conversely, the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing a due westward motion across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean as the cyclone moves on the south side of a strengthening mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast continues to favor the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models, and this forecast is near a blend of those aids. It should be noted, however, that confidence in this track forecast is low given the model spread. The intensity forecast is also quite uncertain. One of the complex factors is Isaac's compact size as small hurricanes like this one are more prone to quick intensity changes, both up and down. In addition, the intensity guidance is in poor agreement as solutions range from steady weakening from this point onward to the HWRF that shows Isaac becoming a major hurricane. Given that the wind shear is expected to remain less than 10 kt for another day or two, strengthening is forecast during that time period. After that, however, an increase in shear first from a trough over the central Atlantic and later from the outflow from Florence should result in weakening when the system moves across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. The NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies above the model consensus in the short term, but below it at the later forecast times. This forecast is in best agreement with the latest LGEM guidance. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is higher than normal. Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands. 2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.7N 42.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.8N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 15.0N 47.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 50.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 15.0N 53.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 15.3N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 15.6N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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